Super Official Nebraska vs Michigan State Game Week Thread
- Thread starter Chris
- Start date
A brief tutorial on football gambling. The house makes their money when an equal amount is wagered on both teams. They get 10% of every dollar wagered on either side and they are happy, regardless of the result of the game. When a spread changes from 5.5 to 4.5, that means the underdog is getting more betting action but not necessarily a significant amount more because not many games land on a 5 point difference. The house gets nervous when a spread moves off of a common football score, like 3,4 and most commonly 7.
Example
Let's say the Huskers were favored by 7.5, and all the money is coming in on MSU. The house knows they have to move the line to get more Husker bettors and balance the book but are more reluctant to do so because moving the line to 6.5 may mean they will take a royal ass-whoopin if the Huskers were to win by 7, which is a common difference in the score of a football game.
To keep it simple, the line starts 7.5 and everyone is on MSU, with $1000 wagered on them, and only $200 on Nebraska. The bookies are nervous if MSU covers, they are going to get hit pretty hard, so they are forced to move the line down to 6.5 to get more action on the Huskers. Well, many Husker fans are thinking "If the line drops below 7, I'm taking the Huskers. It does, and now $1000 have been bet on the Husker to cover the 6.5.
The Huskers win the game 28-21, and the house gets beat on both sides. The early action on MSU getting 7.5 and the late action on Nebraska giving 6.5.
When the line moves from 5.5 to 4.5 it is not that big of a deal. The house is prodding Husker fan to get with the program but are not too concerned.
Any line with an increment of 7 makes the house nervous if they have to cross that threshold to balance their book.
13-15
20-22...etc.
also anything crossing over 10.
Hope this makes sense.
Saturday is a pivotal game for our development as a team.
I know Hunchie represents the natural fan reaction. It's safer to play 'let's wait and see' because we've been brutally disappointed so often any more. But we're through the "Golden Boy Frost" hype and the "Five Star Raiola" hype. For all our enthusiasm, it wasn't based on anything we witnessed as a Husker fan. The growing enthusiasm we're feeling this time around is based on what we've seen with our own eyes on the field.
Yes, the competition hasn't been very good (although I'd argue that North Dakota curb-stomping was more noteworthy than most folks give the team credit for.) We had a strong non-con last season against a similar level of competition, but, FWIW, I feel much more confident with the Husker play I've seen thus far than I did last season.
Now that the going will start getting tough, I am choosing to put my faith in Colandrea and his buds, Chambliss and his buds, and Barney and his buds until proven wrong. GBR!
Ever since the schedule came out people have speculated on our upcoming season's record. Well, here we are, and after everybody penciled in a win for this Saturday, we have to actually play the game. We are a slight favorite and gamblers have reason to go for the "home dog". I'm very nervous wondering if my preseason confidence was just whistling past the graveyard.
I'm still fairly confident, but I'm very excited for this game to happen.
GBR!
I'm still fairly confident, but I'm very excited for this game to happen.
GBR!
I want to believe Doc. I really do. But the most impressive win our 3 non-con opponents have to date was North Dakota over Portland State 47-23. The Portland State team that lost to Oregon 80-0 last week. Bowling Green was beaten by Iowa State 55-7, almost the exact same score as Nebraska. As for Ohio, South Alabama scored almost as many points as Nebraska did against them.
WhoooHooo...nice catch, Hunch!!!
We're beating up teams SO BADLY, they're playing even worse the following week! Just like in the Good Ole Days!!!!
The Huskers have met or exceeded my expectations in the out of conference games and now it's time to see just how they compare with the B1G teams.
I'm going to channel my inner-Hunchback Johnny and give you two words why Nebraska's conference season is gonna be different this year:
Better Quality Depth...at each position...with the exception of TE.
Better Quality Depth...at each position...with the exception of TE.
I'm not exactly sure what this means but utilizing my extensive football knowledge I do know that Nebraska is on the positive side of it.
This made me chunkle, and I know you know I know better.WhoooHooo...nice catch, Hunch!!!
We're beating up teams SO BADLY, they're playing even worse the following week! Just like in the Good Ole Days!!!!
My battle cry here is simple, both MSU and ND are not that good
For what it's worth, ESPN's "predictor" says Nebraska has a 70+% chance to win. I don't know what metrics they use to come up with the % chance to win and I don't know how accurate (or not) it is.
The only question I have left for Nebraska football 2026 is: Is the Nebraska Defense big and strong enough to shut down B1G opponents running game when they go 22 personnel and run between the tackles? If yes, we could be looking at (to my very much surprise and delight) a 9, maybe even 10 (+?) wins this season. However, if Michigan State can line up in 22 and run the ball between the tackles, then 6-6 is not necessarily inevitable, just likely.
