I see a similarity to the Hagler-Leonard fight in that if Bud just survives clean, he'll get the nod. Sometimes when the behind the scenes people find it convenient, the lighter puncher gets full credit for crisp punches that have little effect while powerful shots that actually define the fight get downplayed.
I think if Bud gets through the 12th round without leaving his feet, he wins. Canelo is by far the hardest puncher Bud will have faced.
Two years ago I wouldn't have given Crawford much of a chance, but Alvarez has been fighting professionally since he was 16. He's long in the tooth.
I want the local guy to win, but my wallet is staying in my pocket.