I've heard something similar from the local radio guys, but I thought it was:
1) win division 3 out of 5 years
2) win conference 1 out of 5 years
So, as far as 'how many years does the next guy get', I think working towards 4 is prudent, but one must look at the product on the field - is the team building towards appearing, first, then winning the CCG? If the next guy can, at least, develop strong lines, it won't take long to see improvement.
As long as we see improvement, the next guy (whoever and whenever that is)will get more time.
As for the talent argument, I made this chart of the recruiting rankings (per 247 composite) of us and some of our foes this year. No one is saying we need less talent, or that we have the talent of Ohio St. and Bama.
Make of this what you will:
Year -- Big 10 class rank --Average grade per player --Total class grade
Nebraska
2013 #3 86.75 Average 220.72 Total
2014 #6 84.95 Average 200.24 Total
2015 #4 86.16 Average 211.72 Total
2016 #5 86.86 Average 216.76 Total
2017 #5 87.81 Average 224.33 Total
Wisconsin
2013 #7 84.64 Average 191.08 Total
2014 #5 84.78 Average 205.44 Total
2015 #6 85.5 Average 189.85 Total
2016 #6 84.96 Average 202.85 Total
2017 #7 85.82 Average 193.87 Total
Iowa
2013 #12 82.59 Average 171.96 Total
2014 #12 83.64 Average 171.84 Total
2015 #12 83.26 Average 169.99 Total
2016 #9 84.25 Average 181.39 Total
2017 #8 84.52 Average 191.44 Total
Purdue
2013 #13 82.42 Average 162.05 Total
2014 #13 82.45 Average 156.02 Total
2015 #14 81.75 Average 162.85 Total
2016 #14 81.13 Average 145.09 Total
2017 #14 81.88 Average 158.89 Total
Northwestern
2013 #11 84.21 Average 174.64 Total
2014 #8 85.79 Average 182.68 Total
2015 #10 84.07 Average 174.83 Total
2016 #10 84.53 Average 174.91 Total
2017 #11 85.04 Average 182.07 Total
2018 #9 85.57 Average 169.61 Total
Northern Illinois
2013 NA 76.48 Average 108.89 Total
2014 NA 75.43 Average 109.52 Total
2015 NA 79.10 Average 138.94 Total
2016 NA 78.25 Average 111.40 Total
2017 NA 78.92 Average 122.74 Total
Ugh. That didn't format well.