Future BIG expansion candidates to get to 20 teams

[MadRat]

The comment about Rutgers is misguided. New York is not fertile grounds for football. Here is your choices:

1. Syracuse Orange
2. Army Black Knights
3. Buffalo Bulls
4. Fordham Rams
5. Albany Great Danes
6. Stony Brook Seawolves
7. Colgate Raiders
8. Cornell Big Red
9. Marist Red Foxes
10. Columbia Lions
11. Wagner Seahawks

Not much television audience for any of them. Syracuse is a realistic option. I honestly think we should grab the military schools for maximum audience reach, but its monetary value is pretty weak. Would anybody be excited for Nebraska-Air Force, Nebraska-Navy, or Nebraska-Army... anyone?

Now look at choices for New Jersey:

1. Rutgers-Camden Scarlet Raptors
2. Rowan Professors
3. Centenary College of New Jersey Cyclones
4. TCNJ Lions
5. Rider Broncs
6. Princeton Tigers
7. College of St Elizabeth Eagles
8. FDU Florham Devils

Even more slim pickings. Rutgers is obviously much more than marginally better than any other school.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

I really like the way the Big 12 is set up. It's competitively balanced without 1 or 2 teams dominating the conference. Also, the styles of football are quite varied.

Until the new Pac 12 additions prove otherwise or ND arrives, I still see the Big 10 being dominated by OSU and Michigan.

Meanwhile, the SEC just sits there watching the expansion. Will they try to make a play for FSU, Clemson, Miami, NC, etc.?

 

[Doc Fumble]

Until the new Pac 12 additions prove otherwise or ND arrives, I still see the Big 10 being dominated by OSU and Michigan.

My gut says that a few years from now, Michigan and Ohio State will look back at this past decade as ‘the good olé’ days.’

Just my opinion, but I see the West Coast merger creating as much of an emotional upheaval for the Old Guard as we experienced when the Big 8 expanded (remember that word) to become the Big XII. The Texas-centric stuff won’t be there but Michigan and the Buckeyes will have their ‘Earth Shook’ in a more profound way than either Nebraska or Penn State.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

My gut says that a few years from now, Michigan and Ohio State will look back at this past decade as ‘the good olé’ days.’

Just my opinion, but I see the West Coast merger creating as much of an emotional upheaval for the Old Guard as we experienced when the Big 8 expanded (remember that word) to become the Big XII. The Texas-centric stuff won’t be there but Michigan and the Buckeyes will have their ‘Earth Shook’ in a more profound way than either Nebraska or Penn State.

I sure hope you're right. The conference desperately need some competitive balance. The Pac 12 schools are going to have to prove they can recruit and build teams to win Big 10 slugfests.

 

[Doc Fumble]

The Pac 12 schools are going to have to prove they can recruit and build teams to win Big 10 slugfests.

I’ve seen enough USC-Notre Dame games over the years to think they’ll do fine.

As we’ve seen, a B1G schedule does take its toll though. And as Nebraska learned, it does take time (IMO) to psychologically adjust to a whole new world of football.

 

[redfred]

No conclusions from me, and just wondering out loud......

Will this new conference change offensive strategies, and by default defensive as well? Many Big Ten teams have made their living with power football. There is always a place for good, big, strong lines in football, but will they be used the way many (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minny, et al) have used them until now?

This is going to be a tough, tough league, and if Fox and co want high profile games it's going to be brutal at the top.... week after week. If a team is to survive until the end of the twelve game conference season, and be ready for post season play that could include more than one game (ie conference championship game plus up to four playoff games) will the method of play change?

Clearly quality dept is going to be crucial, but programs are going to live and die with the roster they start the season with. Will programs go out of their way to protect players and keep them healthy? There will be no dipping into the extra players the NFL can dip into in they run short. The transfer portal has made it hard to keep quality depth to add more consternation. This all might lead to interesting and changing times ahead.

 

[Doc Fumble]

This is going to be a tough, tough league, and if Fox and co want high profile games it's going to be brutal at the top.... week after week. If a team is to survive until the end of the twelve game conference season, and be ready for post season play that could include more than one game (ie conference championship game ... ?

I could be dead wrong but I suspect that the 'murderer's row' schedules that the new B1G and the new SEC will have are designed to lead to the two conferences conducting their own National Championship tournament shared by Fox and ESPN/Disney.

The top four teams in each conference play semi-final and final games for the conference championships (like the NFC and AFC) and the two winners play for CFB's version of the Super Bowl. Like the old days before the AFL-NFL merger, there will be cries that somebody else should be considered the best team (ala UCF's 'claim' back in 2017) but the Big Dawgs won't care because they will be getting all the exposure and the TV playoff money

 

[Luke Skywalker]

No conclusions from me, and just wondering out loud......

Will this new conference change offensive strategies, and by default defensive as well? Many Big Ten teams have made their living with power football. There is always a place for good, big, strong lines in football, but will they be used the way many (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minny, et al) have used them until now?

I'm curious about this too. Do the Pac 12 teams adjust their recruiting and offensive/defensive philosophies to win in the Big 10, or do they keep their current identities? I remember thinking we had better athletes and would roll the other teams when we joined the Big 10. Unfortunately, that's not how it turned out. The Big 10 is a slog. You need to have a defensive front seven that can handle being run at over and over again, often times in cold weather.

 

[Blackshirt96]

I really like the way the Big 12 is set up. It's competitively balanced without 1 or 2 teams dominating the conference. Also, the styles of football are quite varied.

Until the new Pac 12 additions prove otherwise or ND arrives, I still see the Big 10 being dominated by OSU and Michigan.

Meanwhile, the SEC just sits there watching the expansion. Will they try to make a play for FSU, Clemson, Miami, NC, etc.?

Its going to take the B1G & SEC to raid the ACC. The buyout looks to be pretty large unless 8 teams want out. My guess is at some point they will work together to pull what they want.

 

[MadRat]

If television is the goal, lets look at 2022 non-B1G and non-SEC audience per game that were above 100K average:

Notre Dame — 3.30M (independent/ACC; last available true blue blood program)
Clemson — 2.59M (ACC)
TCU — 2.20M (Big 12)
(Oregon — 2.21M)
(Southern Cal — 2.07M)
Florida State — 2.03M (ACC)
Oklahoma State — 1.68M (Big 12)
(UCLA — 1.591M)
Baylor — 1.32M (Big 12)
Kansas State — 1.23M (Big 12)
Utah — 1.16M (leaving for Big XII in 2024)
(Washington — 1.15M)
BYU — 997K (Big 12)
Navy — 976K (AAC ex-Big East)
Washington State — 907K (dead position in PAC 12)
Iowa State — 882K (Big 12)
NC State — 881K (ACC)
California — 857M (dead position in PAC 12)
North Carolina — 849K (ACC)
Stanford — 846K (dead position in PAC 12)
Syracuse — 841K (ACC)
Georgia Tech — 837M (ACC)
West Virginia — 774K (Big 12)
Kansas — 732K (Big 12)
Army — 681K (independent)
Texas Tech — 680K (Big 12)
Cincinnati — 653K (Big 12; joined 2023)
Pittsburgh — 650K (ACC)
Oregon State — 625K (dead position in PAC 12)
Miami FL — 608K (ACC)
Wake Forest — 523K (ACC)
UCF — 510K (Big 12; joined 2023)
Arizona — 506K (leaving for Big XII in 2024)
Louisville — 496K (ACC)
Colorado State — 386K (Mountain West)
Tulane — 354K (AAC ex-Big East)
Boise State — 353K (Mountain West)
Colorado — 352.9K (leaving for Big XII in 2024)
Air Force — 326K (Mountain West)
Utah State — 324K (Mountain West)
Boston College — 322K (ACC)
Arizona State — 314K (leaving PAC 12 for Big XII in 2024)
SMU — 312K (AAC ex-Big East)
Toledo — 306K (MAC)
East Carolina — 305K (AAC ex-Big East)
Appalachian State — 298K (Sunbelt)
Virginia Tech — 264K (ACC)
Marshall — 262K (Sunbelt)
Houston — 242K (Big 12)
Virginia — 237K (ACC)
Fresno State — 220K (Mountain West)
Ohio — 214K (MAC)
Connecticut — 212K (independent)
San Diego State — 198K (Mountain West)
Western Michigan — 174K (MAC)
Memphis — 165K (AAC ex-Big East)
Tulsa — 162K (AAC ex-Big East)
Wyoming — 154K (Mountain West)
Central Michigan — 130K (MAC)
Georgia Southern — 125K (Sunbelt)
Nevada — 116.4K (Mountain West)
Duke — 115.7K (ACC)
UTEP — 102K (C-USA)

The bold are the best targets IMHO. (And yes, not all are AAU, notably two of the 4 new members.) Blue = top 40 historic teams.

 

[redfred]

I'm curious about this too. Do the Pac 12 teams adjust their recruiting and offensive/defensive philosophies to win in the Big 10, or do they keep their current identities? I remember thinking we had better athletes and would roll the other teams when we joined the Big 10. Unfortunately, that's not how it turned out. The Big 10 is a slog. You need to have a defensive front seven that can handle being run at over and over again, often times in cold weather.

Indeed.

If a BIG team needs to be relevant late in the season I’m thinking they better be healthy or deep. Both would be nice. For the first time in quite sometime I’m thinking the investment made to add 50+ players was money well spent. We’ll see.

Matt and company have come up with their own solution…….position-less football. Even the offensive line is not exempt. Cross training has been elevated to a whole new level under this staff. Initially I felt that this move was for ‘creative’ scheme possibilities only. While this still applies so does filling in holes caused by injury and fatigue.

 

[MadRat]

Actually, teams with deep reserves in talent with healthy starters push rougher football exactly because its a grind they were built to afford. If you have shallow depth you do not bend that way, and finesse is the more appropriate route. Hence smaller overall teams like Northwestern focused on key offensive players and focused depth at the defensive level.

 

[redfred]

If television is the goal, lets look at 2022 non-B1G and non-SEC audience per game that were above 100K average:

Notre Dame — 3.30M (independent/ACC; last available true blue blood program)
Clemson — 2.59M (ACC)
TCU — 2.20M (Big 12)
(Oregon — 2.21M)
(Southern Cal — 2.07M)
Florida State — 2.03M (ACC)
Oklahoma State — 1.68M (Big 12)
(UCLA — 1.591M)
Baylor — 1.32M (Big 12)
Kansas State — 1.23M (Big 12)
Utah — 1.16M (leaving for Big XII in 2024)
(Washington — 1.15M)
BYU — 997K (Big 12)
Navy — 976K (AAC ex-Big East)
Washington State — 907K (dead position in PAC 12)
Iowa State — 882K (Big 12)
NC State — 881K (ACC)
California — 857M (dead position in PAC 12)
North Carolina — 849K (ACC)
Stanford — 846K (dead position in PAC 12)
Syracuse — 841K (ACC)
Georgia Tech — 837M (ACC)
West Virginia — 774K (Big 12)
Kansas — 732K (Big 12)
Army — 681K (independent)
Texas Tech — 680K (Big 12)
Cincinnati — 653K (Big 12; joined 2023)
Pittsburgh — 650K (ACC)
Oregon State — 625K (dead position in PAC 12)
Miami FL — 608K (ACC)
Wake Forest — 523K (ACC)
UCF — 510K (Big 12; joined 2023)
Arizona — 506K (leaving for Big XII in 2024)
Louisville — 496K (ACC)
Colorado State — 386K (Mountain West)
Tulane — 354K (AAC ex-Big East)
Boise State — 353K (Mountain West)
Colorado — 352.9K (leaving for Big XII in 2024)
Air Force — 326K (Mountain West)
Utah State — 324K (Mountain West)
Boston College — 322K (ACC)
Arizona State — 314K (leaving PAC 12 for Big XII in 2024)
SMU — 312K (AAC ex-Big East)
Toledo — 306K (MAC)
East Carolina — 305K (AAC ex-Big East)
Appalachian State — 298K (Sunbelt)
Virginia Tech — 264K (ACC)
Marshall — 262K (Sunbelt)
Houston — 242K (Big 12)
Virginia — 237K (ACC)
Fresno State — 220K (Mountain West)
Ohio — 214K (MAC)
Connecticut — 212K (independent)
San Diego State — 198K (Mountain West)
Western Michigan — 174K (MAC)
Memphis — 165K (AAC ex-Big East)
Tulsa — 162K (AAC ex-Big East)
Wyoming — 154K (Mountain West)
Central Michigan — 130K (MAC)
Georgia Southern — 125K (Sunbelt)
Nevada — 116.4K (Mountain West)
Duke — 115.7K (ACC)
UTEP — 102K (C-USA)

The bold are the best targets IMHO. (And yes, not all are AAU, notably two of the 4 new members.) Blue = top 40 historic teams.

Very interesting info. I don’t know where you found it, but I’m glad you did

Viewership isn’t the only factor a conference should be looking at, but as long a money rules the roost it’s going to be a big one.

 

[Doc Fumble]

Very interesting info. I don’t know where you found it, but I’m glad you did

Viewership isn’t the only factor a conference should be looking at, but as long a money rules the roost it’s going to be a big one.

One of the huge factors that influences the TV audience size is winning. If you were to look at TCU's average for last season compared to past ones, I suspect you'd see a noticable jump.

This is why The Big Ten is such a TV Big Dawg. With the exception of Notre Dame, the eyeballs on the Big Ten dwarf most others.

It also speaks to the Sleeping Giant that is Nebraska football. Imagine the interest when Rhule brings back a 'Big Ten' Nebraska to relevance?

 

[Jimbosc]

2 more teams - obvious choices are FSU and Notre Dame - but not sure either will join. ND wants to keep their wacky ACC/Independent deal if they can milk enough $$$ out of their new TV contract. FSU seems to prefer the SEC. Clemson is headed to the SEC IMHO.

Probably Okie St is the next best choice.

 

[justino52]

Do you think at some point, college football fans get burnt out on this? I know that when I lived in Nebraska it was so easy to go to games. When conferences were smaller, you could take a day trip to a game and come home that same evening. Or it was an overnight thing.
Now its cross country for many games. Of course, at the same time, now Nebraska will be playing games out west and I can get there half a day. So I guess that's good.
But I was already making plans to see them next year and now those schedules have been axed and are going to change.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

2 more teams - obvious choices are FSU and Notre Dame - but not sure either will join. ND wants to keep their wacky ACC/Independent deal if they can milk enough $$$ out of their new TV contract. FSU seems to prefer the SEC. Clemson is headed to the SEC IMHO.

Probably Okie St is the next best choice.

Oklahoma State would be very interesting from a football scheme standpoint. Their offense is tailored to the Big 12 and Texas/Oklahoma recruiting.

Academically, OSU is ranked #182 out of 443 national universities according to US News and World Report and not an AAU member. Like many state schools, they're considered academically lower than their in-state counterpart (OU). Of course, the Big 10 may be at a point where they're less snooty about the academics of prospective members.

 

[Chris]

I'm beginning to think that Notre Dame is waiting for the collapse of NCAA football as it morphs into a league of its own, independent of other NCAA sports.

 

[ramelbm]

Do you think at some point, college football fans get burnt out on this? I know that when I lived in Nebraska it was so easy to go to games. When conferences were smaller, you could take a day trip to a game and come home that same evening. Or it was an overnight thing.
Now its cross country for many games. Of course, at the same time, now Nebraska will be playing games out west and I can get there half a day. So I guess that's good.
But I was already making plans to see them next year and now those schedules have been axed and are going to change.

Uh, yeah. It’s already begun to happen.

Lots of fans will soon face the reality that flying to Seattle, Eugene, and LA will be a huge cost and lack the same fun of piling in the car for a day trip. How many folks on this board have fond memories of those trips? Your children will just have to believe you since they won’t experience it.

 

[Doc Fumble]

Lots of fans will soon face the reality that flying to Seattle, Eugene, and LA will be a huge cost and lack the same fun of piling in the car for a day trip. How many folks on this board have fond memories of those trips?

(Frantically waving my hand in the air) ME! ME! ME!!!

Your children will just have to believe you since they won’t experience it.

Hey, ramelbm, as the old Bob Dylan song goes, the time's they are a changin'

Those old trips to Lawrence, Ames, Manhattan, and Columbia --- along with those longer field trips all the way down to Norman -- were a bunch of fun. But as much as we tend to lament what TV has done to our beloved sport, let's not forget WHY television has had the impact it has had on the game:

Impact #1 - Many of us on this board remember that radio used to be our 'go-to' for 75% or more each season's games. Back in the day, it was rare to see more than one or two Husker games on network TV. As much as I enjoyed 'the Voice of Husker Football,' Lyell Bremser, listening to a game on radio isn't anywhere close to the same as seeing it live on television. Unlike radio, with TV, you had a sense of being there to watch them play.

Impact # 2 - And let's not forget the enormous impact that the coming of High-Def TVs had on the game. With a HD, flat-screen TV, you suddenly felt like you had The Best Seat in the Stadium for all of the action. It's the reason why -- unlike Nebraska -- most CFB teams have trouble selling out their stadiums anymore.